MMaxTools

Race Time Predictor

Predict your 5K, 10K, half marathon and marathon times from one result.

The Race Time Predictor estimates your times across 5 km, 10 km, half marathon and marathon from a single recent race result, using the Riegel formula — the same math behind most running calculators: predicted time scales with distance to the power of 1.06.

The exponent above 1.0 reflects that longer races are run slower than a proportional extrapolation would suggest, because fatigue compounds. A 55-minute 10 km predicts roughly a 2:02 half marathon and a 4:16 marathon — useful sanity checks when setting goal times.

Predictions assume equivalent training and conditions between the races. The farther the prediction from your actual result, the less reliable it is — marathon estimates from a 5 km tend to overestimate. Treat outputs as targets to train toward, not guarantees. Runs in your browser.

5 km26:23
10 km55:00
Half marathon (21.1 km)2:01:21
Marathon (42.2 km)4:13:01
1 mile (1.609 km)07:56

Riegel formula with exponent 1.06 — assumes equivalent training and conditions. Marathon predictions from short races tend to overestimate; treat results as targets, not guarantees.

How to use the Race Time Predictor

  1. Choose the race distance you have actually completed.
  2. Enter that race's finish time in hours, minutes and seconds.
  3. Read predicted times for every other distance.
  4. Use the shorter-distance predictions for your next goal.
  5. Re-run after every race to keep predictions current.

Frequently asked questions

What is the Riegel formula?

T2 = T1 × (D2 ÷ D1)^1.06, where T is time and D is distance. The 1.06 exponent captures fatigue — doubling distance more than doubles time. It is the standard basis of most online race predictors.

How accurate are race predictions?

Predictions between similar distances (5K ↔ 10K, 10K ↔ half) are usually within a few percent. Long jumps — especially predicting a marathon from a 5K — often overestimate because marathon pacing, fueling and glycogen play larger roles.

Which result should I use as the base?

Your most recent race at a similar effort under fair conditions. Use a result from the same training phase — an old personal best from years ago will badly skew predictions.